The delight of the UK TV market is that it is unique.  Born out of the creation of the world’s first national broadcasting organisation in 1922, the industry has since evolved through commercial TV, cable TV, satellite TV and now the fledging IPTV.  BT Vision has pioneered the DVB-T hybrid model by taking Freeview and adding on-demand programming through an integrated IPTV connection.  On the face of it, this should be a compelling combination but due to technology, content and marketing challenges the service is yet to realise its potential.  So now the BBC are looking to swop in, hijack the model, define the platform, deliver the content and market it using the same machine that made Freeview such a success.  For the first time, Sky may find themselves outclassed by the infinite flexibility that a broadband connected Freeview clone could deliver.

So what does the future hold for UK IPTV? Let’s first assume that Project Canvas goes ahead.  This is a big assumption and in my view is predicated on the following:

1. The BBC enables, not controls, the new platform.  A gatekeeper approach will cause too many conflicts.
2. The BBC assists in the platform definition and does not dictate it.  The approach must be open, transparent and flexible enough to adopt ‘best of breed’ technologies.
3. The BBC must allow their content to appear on all competing platforms.  The UK public has already paid for it – every which way they wish to consume it.
4. The BBC has to embrace all the various business models – even if it is not in their culture to do so. 

So with Canvas outlasting its marsupial predecessor – Project Kangaroo – we are free to speculate on the effect it will have on the UK TV landscape.  Here’s a possible outcome:

1. A number of manufacturers start to manufacture the enhanced Freeview and Freesat set-top boxes and sell them through retail outlets.  The first offering is simply an Electronic Program Guide (EPG) that displays broadcast content schedule two weeks ahead and catch-up content one week behind for all the BBC channels.  Simple proposition but massively compelling.  It starts to sell in large numbers.
2. ITV and C4 make their content available on the same platform and in the same format.  Variants start to appear with movie content available – through sites like Netflix or through variants of service provider solutions like BT Vision.
3. ISPs start to edge cache all the popular content to reduce the burden on their networks and improve the experience for their customers.  The cost of the caching is born partly by the broadcasters.  Quality assured connections begin to appear funded by an additional broadband subscription fee.  50% of the UK public take this option.
4. Consumers buy more and more of the boxes as they move their existing box to a second room and start to rely on the IPTV Freeview for main viewing.  The winning products are the ones which deliver the best user experience – speed, quality and ease of use.  Freesat becomes ever more popular as the HD service complements the increasingly ubiquitous large flat screens.
5. Virgin mirrors this revolution with similar services available on their DOCSIS 3 cable solution and launch a Freeview variant for off-net customers.
6. The UK public’s viewing habits transition from broadcast to on-demand dominated.  In effect, everyone has access to the ultimate network PVR and they just love it.
7. Services start to become personalised, social and contextual and new commercial models appear that exploit T-commerce, applications-on-demand, voting, rating, content sharing and portability.
8. Sky react as they are being seriously squeezed by both Freeview and Freesat. They enable the broadband connection in their new HD boxes and offer BBC catch-up.  They argue with ITV and C4 for a while but eventually get that too. They then make the decision to swap out all their old digital boxes – a replay of the analogue to digital strategy in the late 90s.
9. The UK finishes switching off all the old analogue broadcast signals and the freed bandwidth is used to transmit HD over DVB-T2.  Freeview HD arrives.
10. Technologies become mature and standard enough to integrate into the TV set.  The word IPTV fades into obscurity and everything just becomes ‘TV’ again.

The result?  The UK consumers end up with the richest choice of platforms and services in the world powered by the marriage of commercial and public service models, the diversity of transmission technologies, the excellence of UK programming and the creativity of UK entrepreneurs.  A pipe dream maybe, but one well worth fighting for?

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